Dec 26 2008
2008 Review – Disaster Preparedness, Peak Oil, Economic Meltdown
I started this blog in January this year to write about superior survival food choices like MRE and Freeze Dried Food for disaster preparedness.
I wanted to keep a narrow focus on food storage and water storage only, something I have been able to maintain so far.
Events this year put much more emphasis on survivalist requirements for food storage. I tried to cover the different interests focusing on longer term options as well as short term 72-hour and 2 week preparedness, although it is not always easy.
The first surprise this year was the huge demand spike for survival food when oil shot up to $140 a barrel. Many people who ascribed to ‘peak oil’ theory acted on their concern and by early May there was resulting shortages of freeze dried food and lead times of 6 – 8 weeks or more till July. By August supply and lead time was back to normal as demand for survival food dropped with the price of oil.
Next up was the economic meltdown that started in September. Demand has gone up as a result but not as severe as during the May oil panic buying, and so there has been no shortages or long lead times of freeze dried food but a steady high volume since October.
I sincerely hope that 2009 brings some economic stability. I also hope that many keep buying long storing (25 years) freeze dried food in 2009 so that as many as possible are prepared if events take a turn for the worse and not wait till the last minute.
Freeze dried food and MRE became in very short supply quickly when a relatively small number of people took action and bought because of peak oil concerns last May. It is obvious it will then be impossible to get survival food once any more acute economic issues arise in the future.
Published under Depression food preparedness,Economic food preparedness,Freeze Dried Food,MRE,Survival Food,water storage
Buying freeze-dried or dehydrated foods is not as important as many make it sound. If you *really* want to help people get prepared, just have them buy regular canned foods at their grocery store. Buy a few extra cans each week, as their budget allows.
Regular canned foods will outlive YOU. See the articles at http://www.internet-grocer.net/how-long.htm
I guess the question is, Do you really want people PREPARED, or are you only in it to make a buck?
Don
Hi Don,
Thanks for your advice. I checked the website out and they also had this statement “Freeze dried foods is the ONLY way to get storable meats” this was on a page selling freeze dried food and not canned food.
There is a lot of canned food for sale there and I noticed you have referred this site on several other blogs about canning. *really*
There are a lot of problems with regular canned food;
1) safety concern for “storable meat” – as mentioned on the website you referred
2) regular canned food is stored with a lot of extra water – adding non value add weight and space to your storage. People who store regular canned food as reserves need a huge amount of climate controlled space, something not everyone has. You can see many people who choose regular canned food online looking for storage solutions for their reserve.
3) inferior taste – many people underestimate the value of moral in a crisis situation and think people will “eat anything to survive”.
4) meal preparation – while canned foods are cooked you have to combine various items to get a meal and if you want it heated you need conventional cooking equipment, not just the heated water for freeze dried food, or nothing in the case of an MRE heater pouch to get a hot meal.
While keeping a few weeks worth of canned food is a good idea as a food reserve, it will become a major inconvenience if you try to keep more than that.
The food storage stuff is timely.
The top story of the year is that global crude oil production peaked in 2008.
The media, governments, world leaders, and public should focus on this issue.
Global crude oil production had been rising briskly until 2004, then plateaued for four years. Because oil producers were extracting at maximum effort to profit from high oil prices, this plateau is a clear indication of Peak Oil.
Then in August and September of 2008 while oil prices were still very high, global crude oil production fell nearly one million barrels per day, clear evidence of Peak Oil (See Rembrandt Koppelaar, Editor of “Oil Watch Monthly,” December 2008, page 1) http://www.peakoil.nl/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/2008_december_oilwatch_monthly.pdf.
Peak Oil is now.
Credit for accurate Peak Oil predictions (within a few years) goes to the following (projected year for peak given in parentheses):
* Association for the Study of Peak Oil (2007)
* Rembrandt Koppelaar, Editor of “Oil Watch Monthly” (2008)
* Tony Eriksen, Oil stock analyst; Samuel Foucher, oil analyst; and Stuart Staniford, Physicist [Wikipedia Oil Megaprojects] (2008)
* Matthew Simmons, Energy investment banker, (2007)
* T. Boone Pickens, Oil and gas investor (2007)
* U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (2005)
* Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Princeton professor and retired shell geologist (2005)
* Sam Sam Bakhtiari, Retired Iranian National Oil Company geologist (2005)
* Chris Skrebowski, Editor of “Petroleum Review” (2010)
* Sadad Al Husseini, former head of production and exploration, Saudi Aramco (2008)
* Energy Watch Group in Germany (2006)
* Fredrik Robelius, Oil analyst and author of “Giant Oil Fields” (2008 to 2018)
Oil production will now begin to decline terminally.
Within a year or two, it is likely that oil prices will skyrocket as supply falls below demand. OPEC cuts could exacerbate the gap between supply and demand and drive prices even higher.
Independent studies indicate that global crude oil production will now decline from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time, demand will increase. Oil supplies will be even tighter for the U.S. As oil producing nations consume more and more oil domestically they will export less and less. Because demand is high in China, India, the Middle East, and other oil producing nations, once global oil production begins to decline, demand will always be higher than supply. And since the U.S. represents one fourth of global oil demand, whatever oil we conserve will be consumed elsewhere. Thus, conservation in the U.S. will not slow oil depletion rates significantly.
Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. There is no plan nor capital for a so-called electric economy. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment. The independent scientists of the Energy Watch Group conclude in a 2007 report titled: “Peak Oil Could Trigger Meltdown of Society:”
“By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame.”
With increasing costs for gasoline and diesel, along with declining taxes and declining gasoline tax revenues, states and local governments will eventually have to cut staff and curtail highway maintenance. Eventually, gasoline stations will close, and state and local highway workers won’t be able to get to work. We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel and gasoline powered trucks for bridge maintenance, culvert cleaning to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, and roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, large transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables from great distances. With the highways out, there will be no food coming from far away, and without the power grid virtually nothing modern works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated building systems.
Documented here:
http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html
http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/
Peak oil is nothing but another frudulent scare tactic. The United States has the largest oil reserves in the world but the government is preventing us from drilling. We have enough coal to gasify to last over 300 years and the oil even longer. It is all about money and control. That being said, I am a total believer in being prepared. Not for an oil crisis but for an economic collapse. The US is very close to an economical disaster. I predict a possible terrorist attack or the world deciding not to us the USD as it’s generally accepted currency. Either way the government may declare martial law and it’s game on.